Seguimiento temporal del desarrollo científico de las tesis doctorales españolas (1848-2009)

This article analyses scientific growth time series using data for Spanish doctoral theses from 1848 to 2009, retrieved from national databases and an in-depth archive search. Data are classified into subseries by historical periods. The analytical techniques employed range from visual analysis of deterministic graphs to curve-fitting with exponential smoothing and AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average models. Forecasts are made using the best model. The main finding is that Spanish output of doctoral theses appears to fit a quasi-logistic growth model in line with Price's predictions. An additional control variable termed year-on-year General Welfare is shown to modulate scientific growth, especially in the historical period from 1899 to 1939.

Autores : Fernandez-Cano, A.; Torralbo, M.; Vallejo, M.

Direcciones :

1 Departamento de Métodos de Investigación y Diagnóstico en Educación, Universidad de Granada, Granada (España)

2 Departamento de Matemáticas, Universidad de Córdoba, Córdoba (España)

3 Departamento de Didáctica, Universidad de Murcia, Murcia (España)