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A study from the University of the Balearic Islands has analysed the impact that global warming will have on coastal destinations chosen by Spanish tourists for their holidays. The researchers assert that coastal provinces in the south of Spain will lose out in competition against those on the Cantabrian coast, whose attraction will be intensified.
Angel Bujosa Bestard and Jaume Rosselló Nadal, researchers at the University of the Balearic Islands, have published an article in the journal ‘Climatic Change’ which indicates that climate change will have repercussions on the distribution of tourists seeking coastal destinations to spend their holidays in Spain.
Bujosa Bestard, co-author of the study, tells SINC, “Our results show that, although the coldest provinces in the north of the Peninsula will benefit from the rise in temperatures, southern coasts will see a reduction in the number of holiday trips.”
The study was based on the decisions made by tourists travelling to Spanish coasts in 2005 – data collected by Familitur – and on characterising trips in terms of distance, temperature and other attributes. These are taken into account in destination choice models in which the contribution to the choice made by the temperature of the holiday location can be measured.
To assess the reassignment of tourism in coastal regions, the study also considered the scenarios established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which gives two alternatives for temperature increase based on economic growth, use of fossil fuels and other variables.
“By keeping the remaining factors constant, we can quantify the effects that temperature change will have on the spatial distribution of national tourist travel,” the scientist confirms.
According to the results, the rise in daily temperatures will have a negative impact on the coastal provinces of Huelva, Malaga, Almeria and Granada. In contrast, northern provinces such as A Coruña, Guipúzcoa and Girona will be more likely to be chosen as holiday spots.
“At the same time, the impact of climate change on the provinces in the east of Spain (Murcia, Alicante, Valencia, Castellón, Tarragona and Barcelona) is lower and varies from one province to another,” they conclude.
References:
Angel Bujosa y Jaume Rosselló. “Climate change and summer mass tourism: the case of Spanish domestic tourism”, Climatic Change. 117:363–375, 2013. DOI 10.1007/s10584-012-0554-x
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